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SpO₂ Altitude Curve Predictor

Logistic curve fit from 95 % at sea level to ~70 % at 5,500 m. Set your plan and see the day-by-day predicted pulse-ox with red-flag day counts.

What this solves

"My pulse-oximeter read 78 — am I dying?" Most trekkers don't know what a normal SpO₂ should be at 4,400 m on day 2 vs day 5. This tool gives you a curve, not a single number, so you can tell whether your body is on track — or whether you are the unlucky 10 % who need to descend.

Predict your SpO₂ curve

You start at: 0 m
Days before any climb: 7
You target: 4,500 m

Predicted SpO₂ curve (acclimatised profile)

Your predicted SpO₂ Danger band (≤ 75 %) Watch band (75–82 %)

How to read the result

Acclimatised baseline at your target altitude is the curve's right-hand endpoint. Expect roughly 85 % at 3,500 m, 80 % at 4,400 m, 75 % at 5,000 m after a week of acclimatisation.

A reading below 75 % at rest at any altitude after day 2 is a yellow flag — re-check in 30 min, hydrate, stop ascending. A reading < 70 % or any drop > 10 % from your own baseline is a "stop, evaluate, consider descent" trigger.

Finger pulse-oximeters are not reliable in the cold or with peripheral vasoconstriction. Warm your hand for 2 min before trusting the number.

Limitations

FAQ

Q: My SpO₂ reads 79 % at 4,200 m on day 2. Should I turn around?
A: Not yet. Day 2 at 4,200 m, 79 % is on the low side of normal but inside the curve. Re-test after 30 min sitting still, hydrated. If it's still < 78 %, that's your stop signal.
Q: Does the device on my Garmin / Apple Watch count?
A: Wrist optical sensors are 4-6 % off at altitude compared to a fingertip pulse-oximeter. Use a dedicated finger cuff (Beurer, Contec, Yuwell) for decisions; the watch is good for trends.
Q: Why is my friend's SpO₂ 5 % higher than mine at the same altitude?
A: Hypoxic ventilatory response is genetically variable. Some people breathe harder and faster at altitude — they're the lucky ones. The slow responders are not unfit, just wired differently.

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Sources

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